“Chaos, when examined closely enough, often reveals design.” The Two Pennies.
Nine hundred and thirty-one. That is our rough estimate of how many men, women, youth and children have been killed in Trinidad & Tobago in random gun attacks between September 2015 and April 2025. Not because of revenge, robbery, or domestic issues, they weren’t in any gangs. They were shot dead while going about their ordinary lives, almost as if it was really all about the sensational headlines, the numbers growing ever higher year after year, and the constant fear of being randomly targeted. There are disturbing allegations and terrible statistics. Looked at separately, they might be easy for some to dismiss. When they are examined together closely, it’s obvious we need an explanation of why so many people were randomly killed. But it’s not just the allegations and the statistics, it’s also about the patterns. Patterns of killing that surged and subsided in step with election seasons, or particular election results. Examine the charts and timeline below, then honestly decide: was there any design at all in our crime chaos? Was regime change through violence against citizens the real mission? Innocent victims deserve justice, those of us who love T&T have to make sure that they get it.
Murder statistics courtesy the Trinidad & Tobago Police Service (TTPS), and the Central Statistical Office (CSO). Where TTPS & CSO figures disagreed, TTPS figures were assumed to be correct. | Chart of TTPS stats here.
“He (well-known lawyer) started talking to me, asking me if I could talk to some gang leaders and men to do some shootings in the East-West Corridor, random shootings and to make PNM look bad…He also said people…were paying good money for it to be done…I want to let everyone know how dangerous these people are and how far they willing to go.”
*From an ex-convict’s police statement.*
Published in the SUNDAY EXPRESS, March 31st, 2024.
PNM | UNC
All the largest increases shown in the above chart have occurred with the PNM in Government. Why? Well, a former PNM National Security Minister once responded that crime seems to go up when the UNC is in Opposition. At least with murders, statistically he's correct, it happened every time. But was that just an attempt at blame shifting? Can the numbers tell us anything more than the obvious? In May 2025, the first month after the General Elections, there were 43% fewer murders than occurred in May 2024, for which the Trinidad & Tobago Police Service has taken the credit. But given the nature of our justice system, it seems likely that a significant number of gunmen (and their guns) remained on the loose, or were out on bail, after the December 30th to April 13th State of Emergency. This is also borne out by the fact that a credible enough threat could be mounted just over three months later to warrant a second SoE, and the cancellation of our much-loved Independence Day Parade. A threat specifically against high office holders who would be more likely to respond in like manner to any gun attack, either themselves or through a security detail. Therefore, previous years' high numbers of random shooting attacks against ordinary unarmed citizens remained a real possibility, but didn't materialize in May or June. And surges in killings in July and October, just before and during the second SoE again suggest that the decline in murders post-elections had nothing to do with any lack of gunmen or guns. The decrease in May contrasts sharply with the over 100% more murders seen in September 2015 compared to September 2014, after 2015's General Elections on September 7th. Neither new government would have had enough time to put any significant new policies in place to affect crime one way or another. Were the significant differences in murders immediately after the elections in 2015 and 2025 just coincidences? That doesn't seem believable, so please consider the facts and allegations that follow, especially what happened in late 2019; allegations in the Interim Report of the Joint Select Committee on National Security - Fifth Session (2019/2020) of the 11th Parliament; and the statistics of 2022-2025.
The SoE ended on April 13th, at which point there were 112 murders for the year, 48 fewer than 2024’s 160 at that date, a 30% drop. 112 murders in 103 days, still more than one per day during a State of Emergency. From April 14th to 30th there were the same number of murders in 2025 as occurred in 2024, 18 killed. The comparative reduction did not continue to accumulate in those 17 days after the SoE ended. All of the reduction in murders in April 2025 took place during those last 13 days of the SoE: 19 in 2024 down to 14 in 2025. Research has shown that crime levels usually bounce back somewhat after an SoE is lifted (third-to-last paragraph in linked article). And this is exactly what happened with murders in those remaining 17 days of April. But even worse, the impending General Elections was the next event which might negatively impact the murder toll, as apparently happened in 2015. However, after a new Prime Minister was sworn in on May 1st, the murder toll did not continue along April's post-SoE trajectory at 2024 levels; nor was there a huge spike, like was seen in 2015, not in May, or June, or even July.
The combined total of murders for May and June was the lowest two-month total of any two consecutive months since the crime-reducing effects of the COVID-19 pandemic back in 2020-2021. Almost miraculously, there were only 59 murders altogether, compared to 104 in May-June 2024, a 43% drop. 59 dead in 61 days, less than one per day. Does this mean that the election result brought about a greater reduction in murders than the SoE did? Why would this be the case, if that's what happened?
Strikingly, one TV station that some suspect has political leanings (which they are free to have), posed this loaded question in a viewer poll in early July: “Are you concerned that there has been no reduction in the country’s murder rate?” They did not provide any figures to back up the claim subtly suggested within the question. But a media organization of that size and reputation should have known that the reduction in murders was nearing the 100 mark, as was revealed the following Sunday. That's actually a very real reduction. The difference of 48 more than doubled to 99 from May 1st to July 12th, with no SoE or any new anti-crime plan in place. Why would anyone want this fact to be covered up? Free and fair elections were held, there was a certain result and then a notable drop in murders year-on-year unlike 2015 (the last time there was a change of government). Why pretend otherwise? And this isn't paranoia. There were several calls from the public after the elections for updates on crime statistics, especially murders. Outlets which had made a point of actively promoting crime stories and stats in previous months and years, suddenly seemed disinterested in continuing to do so anywhere near as aggressively. Even the TTPS seemed hesitant to provide the figures they obviously would have had.
On July 18th 2025 the nation found itself under another SoE due to an alleged "threat" against high office holders. It was unlike the previous SoE which was "based on continued criminal activity that could endanger public safety", as this US Embassy Security Alert put it. We were told that this new SoE had nothing to do with homicide rates, according to the TTPS [9th paragraph]. Naturally then, citizens have been speculating: Who exactly was under threat? What did they do or not do that angered and united the criminal elements? Did they make any arrangements with these criminals and then not keep their side of the deal?
Hopefully we'll know the truth about all these matters soon.
So much bloodshed over the years has had immeasurably negative psychological and economic effects on our nation as a whole, and on traumatized families who will never be the same again. Though we acknowledge the unprecedented disruption caused by COVID-19 at an inopportune time, pressing questions remain. What did the authorities subsequently do about the very serious allegations in the interim JSC report linked above, even as some of these allegations came to match the sordid reality in the lives and deaths of citizens of T&T? More importantly, who was behind what can be described as an almost decade-long, deliberate and cold-blooded massacre? We can't just call hundreds of victims "collateral damage" and move on. Anything done in the darkness must eventually come to light, justice demands it.
If allegations published in the media and by our Parliament are true, as TTPS statistics suggest they are, a political agenda led to hundreds of extrajudicial killings in at least the last decade in T&T, a clear violation of human rights. Therefore going forward, Trinidad & Tobago may need its own modified version of South Africa's Truth and Reconciliation Commission:
"The Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC) was a court-like restorative justice body assembled in South Africa in 1996 after the end of apartheid. Authorized by Nelson Mandela and chaired by Desmond Tutu, the commission invited witnesses who were identified as victims of gross human rights violations to give statements about their experiences, and selected some for public hearings. Perpetrators of violence could also give testimony and request amnesty from both civil and criminal prosecution." [Wikipedia]
Our experiences are nowhere near theirs, but no less important to address in a sober, systematic, and future-positive way. We have 931 reasons why, plus over a million more.
T&T Flag courtesy: Albert Sydney, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons - Resized and cropped.
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